The NBA Spread
When we look at an NBA spread, what do we see? Well, today we see that the San Antonio Spurs are favored by a full seven and a half points over the Toronto Raptors.
"Hmm," we think.
"That seems a little high.
The Raps have been hot, winning eight of their last ten straight up and covering in seven of those games.
More importantly, they seem to have been undervalued a lot, covering at a rate of over 63% all season long.
" "Wait a minute," the evil capper on your other shoulder says.
"These are the Spurs.
A Western Conference powerhouse for how many years now? And everyone and their dog knows the West is the best and the East is the least.
The Spurs are home, too, where they've covered only a little more than 46% of the time...
but against much tougher competition.
The Raptors have been feeding on a diet of mostly Eastern Conference teams.
The Spurs could easily bitch-slap these upstarts and show them who the big boys really are.
" "Hmm.
" If I was a betting man, and I am, I'd lay some big odds you've had a thought process similar to this regarding a spread in the NBA.
In today's example, you may decide to roll with the hot team whom you feel is undervalued.
Or you may decide that the favorite is the play in this case against what you believe to be weaker competition.
I wouldn't fault you either way.
The spread so easily creates doubt in our mind because it is by nature a 50-50 proposition.
A true toss-up.
But if it is a true toss-up, shouldn't all teams be hovering around 50% ATS? How can a team like Toronto cover the spread so well at over 63%? Clearly, the books are missing something regarding Toronto.
I doubt it.
Books miss very little.
Trust me.
Toronto can cover at over 63% and it makes no never mind to them because teams like the Clippers cover only 37% of their games.
Everything is in balance.
Conventional wisdom teaches us that a spread is designed to split the action as closely as possible between the two teams.
If we take a snapshot of the NBA today (February 27, 07), we find that dogs have covered 51.
59% of their games and favorites have covered 48.
41% of their games.
This is a perfect split for the books when you take into account the fact that more money is bet on favorites than dogs.
If we look at the end of this season, we'll find the numbers to be similar.
If we look at the end of last season, or at five seasons, we'll find very similar numbers - more or less right down the middle with a slight tilt against where the higher amount of money is going (favorites).
As you may have surmised from all this, the importance of getting reduced juice on spread bets is of utmost importance to showing a profit over the long term.
Paying out -110 creates enormous difficulties for the gambler who needs to win 53% of the time on a very long series of what amounts to coin flips (mathematically speaking).
Reduced juice was formerly available primarily from Pinnacle Sports.
Currently, Matchbook is our choice for reduced juice, but this could easily change over the next few weeks or months.
Regular juice books should be avoided if at all possible as the house edge is very difficult to overcome in the long term.
"Hmm," we think.
"That seems a little high.
The Raps have been hot, winning eight of their last ten straight up and covering in seven of those games.
More importantly, they seem to have been undervalued a lot, covering at a rate of over 63% all season long.
" "Wait a minute," the evil capper on your other shoulder says.
"These are the Spurs.
A Western Conference powerhouse for how many years now? And everyone and their dog knows the West is the best and the East is the least.
The Spurs are home, too, where they've covered only a little more than 46% of the time...
but against much tougher competition.
The Raptors have been feeding on a diet of mostly Eastern Conference teams.
The Spurs could easily bitch-slap these upstarts and show them who the big boys really are.
" "Hmm.
" If I was a betting man, and I am, I'd lay some big odds you've had a thought process similar to this regarding a spread in the NBA.
In today's example, you may decide to roll with the hot team whom you feel is undervalued.
Or you may decide that the favorite is the play in this case against what you believe to be weaker competition.
I wouldn't fault you either way.
The spread so easily creates doubt in our mind because it is by nature a 50-50 proposition.
A true toss-up.
But if it is a true toss-up, shouldn't all teams be hovering around 50% ATS? How can a team like Toronto cover the spread so well at over 63%? Clearly, the books are missing something regarding Toronto.
I doubt it.
Books miss very little.
Trust me.
Toronto can cover at over 63% and it makes no never mind to them because teams like the Clippers cover only 37% of their games.
Everything is in balance.
Conventional wisdom teaches us that a spread is designed to split the action as closely as possible between the two teams.
If we take a snapshot of the NBA today (February 27, 07), we find that dogs have covered 51.
59% of their games and favorites have covered 48.
41% of their games.
This is a perfect split for the books when you take into account the fact that more money is bet on favorites than dogs.
If we look at the end of this season, we'll find the numbers to be similar.
If we look at the end of last season, or at five seasons, we'll find very similar numbers - more or less right down the middle with a slight tilt against where the higher amount of money is going (favorites).
As you may have surmised from all this, the importance of getting reduced juice on spread bets is of utmost importance to showing a profit over the long term.
Paying out -110 creates enormous difficulties for the gambler who needs to win 53% of the time on a very long series of what amounts to coin flips (mathematically speaking).
Reduced juice was formerly available primarily from Pinnacle Sports.
Currently, Matchbook is our choice for reduced juice, but this could easily change over the next few weeks or months.
Regular juice books should be avoided if at all possible as the house edge is very difficult to overcome in the long term.
